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Now, we have summarized the work on oil prices study using topic modeling.  Some new things added:

  • Calculated the correlation between the topic trend and price with a temporal moving window. Users are now easier to identify the factors related to price volatility.
  • Topic modeling of a randomly sampled corpus with 338,828 New York Times articles. Topics are compared to oil prices.
  • Identified some interesting correlations, such as a positive correlation between entertainment-related topics and oil prices, and a negative correlation between the crime-related topics and oil prices. (Is that because media tend to focus on more important topics than crime?)
  • Discovered the correlation between the unemployment and oil prices by examining articles mentioning “unemployment”, which was suggested by LDA results.

For the full poster and report, refer to: the following links.

Exploring Commodity and Stock Volatility using Topic Modeling on Historical News Articles — Application to Crude Oil Prices [poster] [report]